By Zukile Majova
Political Editor
President Cyril Ramaphosa has described opposition parties as disintegrating entities and posing no real threat to the ANC’s dominance.
“All they can do is just nibble at the edges of the election pie,” he said.
Ramaphosa’s ANC has been losing votes – from 69,69% in 2004 to 57,5% in 2019 – and seems destined to shrink even further.
The president may have a point, however, because an opposition in disarray, as is the case presently, is no match for the might of the ANC and its friends in the labour federation Cosatu and the South African Communist Party.
Without a “united opposition”, the idea that reducing the ANC majority to below 50% would remove it from power is a fallacy.
Even if opposition parties received a collective 60% of the vote, they could not form an alternative government.
Before the formation of the Umkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, which will be a game changer in this election, the DA-led Multiparty Charter for South Africa was still below 30%.
This opposition coalition’s failure to convince Rise Mzansi, the GOOD party, and the Patriotic Alliance to join its ranks has further weakened it.
Potential kingmakers like Julius Malema’s EFF and Jacob Zuma’s Umkhonto Wesizwe have not only rejected the DA pact but are carving a new path.
Parties like the ATM, the UDM, and the PAC will most likely join this third way, resulting in DA leader John Steenhuisen’s idea of a “united opposition” little more than a pipe dream.
With the elections now less than four weeks away, pre-election polls are suggesting the bulk of the opposition vote would be shared among three parties: DA (22%), EFF (12%) and MK (8%).
But these are the main culprits that are tearing the opposition into disarray. Other parties that could do well in this election like ActionsSA and the PA, have also had their own fallout in the City of Johannesburg council.
In Johannesburg, voters gave 64% of the vote to opposition parties in the last municipal elections. Yet the ANC still governs the R80-billion city with 33% of the vote.
A coalition of the opposition governed the city for a few months before the DA realised it could no longer stomach being in bed with the EFF.
So even if the voters took power away from the ANC, opposition parties will most likely hand that power straight back to the ruling party.
Pictured above: John Steenhuisen and Julius Malema.
Source: File
